
The Atlanta Hawks reached one of their goals set before the season when they earned their 50th win Friday night against the Toronto Raptors. So, first and foremost, congratulations to Mike Woodson and crew for continuing this steady streak of improvement. Another goal was reached last night following the Celts loss to the Bulls (and the Hawks victory over the Bucks the night before) which gave the Hawks the number three seed in the Eastern Conference and their highest playoff seeding in the Mike Woodson era (I still feel uneasy referring to it as that). That leaves the Hawks with the number six seed in the East for the first round.
If the regular season ended yesterday Atltanta would be matched up with Milwaukee to start things off. Milwaukee is a team that, two weeks ago, I would have wanted to avoid in the first round. With the likes of a healthy Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, and Andrew Bogut, this is a group that can give teams like the Hawks (who they match up with athletically) serious problems. Alas, the Bucks season was presumably broken along with Bogut’s arm, and what a shame that is. Milwaukee was one of the hottest teams since the All Star break at 21-9 and Bogut was, obviously, a huge key to all of their recent success. Bogut’s been consistent with 16 ppg and 10 rpg, but has really stepped up the defense since the break improving from 2.2 blocks per game before the All Star break to 3.4 bbg since. Following Bogut’s injury, the Bucks have gone just 3-2 and are averaging 4 less rebounds and 1.5 less blocks as a team.
I never like to celebrate an injury, but if the standings stay put (Miami still could drop to the 6th seed) Bogut’s absence makes the Hawks chances sooo much better. The Bucks lost a guy able to put up 11.5 ppg, 10 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.5 bpg against the Hawks. No one on their roster can fill that hole (other than maybe the points). Al Horford and Josh Smith averaged 28 ppg, 22 rpg, 5.7 apg, and 5 bpg combined against the Bucks this year with Bogut in the lineup for all of the games but one; look for that number to hold steady at the very least.
Of course counting out the Bucks could be bad for a couple of reasons:
1- These guys play defense. Its been a huge key to their success this season and don’t expect them to feel sorry for themselves. It’s their first trip back to the playoffs in some time. In fact, the Bucks ranked third in Defensive Efficiency this year (note number two and six on the list just so you know what the other potential first round match-ups might entail as well). This is how the Bucks get victories, which is even more apparent when you note they’ve only been winning games by a margin of 1.58 points (over the past 25 when they hit their stride this moved up to 2.90).
2- John Salmons. As much as I want this series to be an easy one for the Hawks, imagining a series playing out like the game between the two back on March 22nd is too good to pass up. That game had Andrew Bogut, granted, but it also had an unbelievable playoff atmosphere. Joe and Salmons ended the game trading buckets and finished with 27 and 32 points, respectively. Salmons has big game potential, but without other role players in place, I don’t see him being this effective for an entire series.
Possible Match-ups:
Al Horford – Kurt Thomas (Adv. Hawks)
Josh Smith – Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Adv. Hawks)
Marvin Williams – Carlos Delfino (Even, though I desperately want to give this to Marvin)
Joe Johnson – John Salmons (Even)
Mike Bibby/Jeff Teague – Brandon Jennings/Luke Ridnour (Adv. Bucks, the Hawks lose track of Ridnour more than any other player it seems)
Side Note: Jerry Stackhouse is old, but still destroys the Hawks defense. I’m looking at you, Jamal Crawford.
More to come, I promise. Game tonight at 8pm in Atlanta against the Cavs to finish up the regular season. Lebron probably won’t play but it’s Atlanta’s last chance to get a win against them until the playoffs, maybe.
Here’s to hoping I didn’t jump the gun six hours early for this playoff preview. Bucks at Celtics, New Jersey at Miami, Chicago at Charlotte all tonight.
UPDATE: Jeff Teague’s first career double-double (24 and 15 assists)! I like it. Also, time not wasted; onto the Bucks.